When it comes to Kentucky Derby horse racing systems there tends to be a ton of them.  Everyone has their own way to handicap the race, and given the craziness that has occurred in the past at the Derby, there is no wonder so many different styles have emerged.  With Giacomo and Mine That Bird as recent examples of hugely priced horses to win the run for the roses it makes it all the more interesting.  A system that intrigues me and that I haven’t used before is one developed a while ago by a writer at the LA Times.  I’ll make no bones about this, I’m literally using his system step by step to see what it ferrets out.  You can find his article from back in the day here.  Without further adieu, to the selection criteria

1. Prefer horses whose pedigree, measured by the controversial but effective “dosage index,” shows the stamina to win a 1 1/4-mile race.

You can find all the dosage indexes at pedigree query.  I’m a fan for the most part with the dosage index.  It has been pretty good over the years with notable exceptions of Mine That Bird and Giacomo.  This year we have 3 horses over the magic number of 4:  Conveyance, Jackson Bend and Mission Impazible.

2. Prefer horses who were counted among the leaders of their age group for the previous season — rated within 10 pounds of the leader in the Experimental Free Handicap of 2-year-old colts and geldings.

You can find the experimental free handicap information at the jockey club website.  I’m a fan of this information because it is done prior to the races run in the year of the race.  In this year’s case we have 8 horses who match this criteria: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Make Music For Me, Awesome Act, Dublin, and Homeboykris.

3. Prefer horses who won races of one mile or more as 2-year-olds.

Makes sense since this will be the longest race that is run in these horses lives to this point.  Here is the list that won a race at least 1 mile in length: Lookin At Lucky, Ice Box, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Devil May Care (f), Jackson Bend, Homeboykris (g)

4. Throw out horses who didn’t win any race at age 2. No such late bloomer has won the Derby since Proud Clarion in ‘67.

We don’t want losers in our Derby picks!  Here is the list of those who failed to win as a 2 year old: Line of David, Make Music For Me, Paddy O’Prado

5. Prefer horses who had three or four races — no more, no less — between Jan. 1 and the Derby. Every winner since ‘84 had three or four.

Seems somewhat arbitrary, but we are following the method, so here is the list of those that did (most of them did anyway!): Ice Box, Line of David, Stately Victor, American Lion, Dean’s Kitten, Paddy O’Prado, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Dublin, Sidney’s Candy

6. Toss out any horse who didn’t prep in a 1 1/8-mile race.

Again goes back to the fact that this race is long and we need horses to have some distance under his belt.  Only Homeboykris didn’t have a prep in a 1 1/8  mile race.

7. Prefer horses who finished third or better in their final preps, like 38 of the past 40 Derby winners.

Makes sense, if they can’t finish on the board you are likely in trouble.  Only a select few horses didn’t do this, demerits to: Noble’s Promise, Make Music For Me, and Discreetly Mine.

8. Don’t be too impressed by horses who won their final preps. The past six Derby winners saved their best for the first Saturday in May.

An interesting phenomenon.  Here is the list of those that DIDN’T win their final prep race: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Make Music For Me, Paddy O’Prado, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Awesome Act, Dublin, Backtalk, Homeboykris (g)

9. Prefer horses ridden by jockeys of national renown.

This is a bit fuzzy for me.  I’ll stick with the criteria being if you have ridden in a Derby prior to this year.  Granted their are a few jockeys that are first timers and have quite impressive resumes, but the line had to be drawn somewhere.  If you have raced in this even before you have to have national recognition.  Here are those that haven’t raced in the Kentucky Derby before: Ice Box, American Lion, Make Music For Me, Conveyance, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Dublin, Backtalk, Sidney’s Candy.  Quite a few to be honest with you.

10. Don’t bet on the post-time favorite.

I guess we’ll see what happens, but almost assuredly Lookin At Lucky will be your post time favorite.

So where does that leave us?  When looking at the LA Times article they noted that a horse needed to hit on 8, 9, or 10 of these criteria.  Thankfully there are some that do.  Unfortunately, no one got a perfect 10.  One horse got a 9, Super Saver.  Others that had 8 included 9 horses: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Jackson Bend, Awesome Act, Dublin, and Homeboykris.

The system would say to stick with one of those 10 horses.  I guess to be fair it only limits the field to half of it original size, but some noted omissions include many people’s top pick Sidney’s Candy and Conveyance one of Baffert’s horses.  For me I weeded out the above list quite a bit further to remove Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Jackson Bend and Homeboykris as those that don’t have a real shot in my opinion.  That leaves Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Awesome Act, Dublin and my personal favorite Super Saver.

Why Super Saver you ask?  First is ridden by Calvin Borel who has been on the back of 2 of the past 3 Derby winners including last year’s miracle.  He has won on the Churchill Down’s surface at 1 mile in impressive fashion (5 lengths) has a top notch trainer in Pletcher and finished 2nd in a very contentious Arkansas Derby and appeared to want more ground at the end.  Good luck with your picks!