A look at dosage in the 2010 Belmont Stakes

The first thing to consider when looking at the Belmont Stakes is whether these horses can get the distance.  The Kentucky Derby is a long race, the longest of many horses lives.  The Belmont Stakes takes that to a whole other level given its 1 1/2 mile distance.  Low dosage numbers are the key here if at all possible, with the mystical number being 4.00 or lower.  Unfortunately this does not eliminate a single horse in this year’s field as they all have a dosage index of 4.00 or lower (most significantly lower).  On the high side of this equation are Fly Down (4.00), Game On Dude (3.67) and Ice Box (3.36).

A look at Jockey in the 2010 Belmont Stakes

Another one of my favorite angles, the jockey seems to have a way about making the race end in a certain way.  The key here being that many of these jockeys have not raced a ton in the Belmont.  Desormeaux is not in the race, so that narrows it a bit.  Of the remaining jockeys with any amount of history the Belmont we have Mike Smith (aboard Drosselmeyer) and Jon Velazquez (aboard Fly Down).  Both boast an above 30% in the money finish in more than a dozen past Belmont mounts.  Leave them out of your picks at your peril.

Pace an important factor in 2010 Belmont Stakes

It is often said “pace makes race” and this was certainly the fact du jour in the Preakness.  Looking at the Belmont field we appear to have a very similar type pattern.  The only early speed horse is First Dude (you know, the only early speed horse in the Preakness Stakes that almost shocked the world and wired it).  You have to be cognizant of a horse that is the exact opposite of every other horse in a race.  First Dude is conspicuous in this regard for this race.  Couple that with the fact that the deep closers seldomly do well in the Belmont and you have a recipe for a early speed horse making some noise.  On top of all that, the early speed has played very well in this meet at Belmont.

Who has the bullet workouts prior to the 2010 Belmont Stakes?

One final place to look for an angle is the workouts.  Given the first 2 legs had prominent horses in the top 3 that had bullets, let’s not forget them here.  The horses with the bullets coming into the Belmont are: Fly Down (with a 47 and 2 @ 4f), Make Music For Me (with a 1:10 and 1 @ 5f), and Drosselmeyer (with a 59 and 3 @ 4f).  Let’s make sure we keep those horses in mind here.

Final 2010 Belmont Stakes Handicapping

Given all of the above I need to play First Dude as he is the only early speed in the race.  I expect him to be on the lead and be hard to chase down late.  Couple that with a couple of the bullet workout horses with great jockeys (Drosselmeyer and Fly Down) and you have a winning combination I think.  Good luck with your 2010 Belmont picks!

Now, given that I was actually able to ferret out the winner in my 2010 Kentucky Derby Handicapping I released a few weeks ago, you are going to find me very hard pressed to get off that horse now.  Especially given the impressive performance he displayed on that muddy track with all those horses.  Given my last article talking about the importance of the jockey in your Preakness Stakes Horse Racing system don’t forget to keep a special eye on those horses with top jocks aboard.  So we need to pay attention to horses that are ridden by Calvin Borel (Super Saver), Mike Smith (Jackson Bend) and Kent Desormeaux (Paddy O Prado).  Another key jockey is Albarado, but unfortunately for him he is not in the race.  Super Saver will be prominently featured in my picks due to his impressive win at the derby as well as his jockey and trainer combination.  Jackson Bend had a poor showing in the derby, but Mike Smith is still a great jockey and if you can look past that last performance he actually has finished very well in many big time races.  In addition check out that blazing fast workout he posted his last tune up for this race.  The last horse here is Paddy O Prado, who just about had the best trip possible in the Derby and faded fast at the end to finish 3^rd.  Against what many will think here I am going to toss him from my top 3 and go elsewhere for the Preakness.  I didn’t like Desormeaux’s end to that race either.

Now to find some others worth playing to package with Super Saver and perhaps Jackson Bend.  You have to at least consider that Lookin At Lucky has a great shot here.  With a top trainer in Baffert as well as a great race given his trip in the Derby coming out of the dreaded 1 hole I think he is a play here.  Toss at your peril.

Given that the only horse that won its last race in this field is Super Saver it does leave a bit to be desired.  Especially considering that so many of the Derby horses passed on this race.  A horse that has to intrigue people is the 5 horse, Yawanna Twist.  Lightly raced (only 4 races) he boasts 2 firsts and 2 seconds.  An impressive line to say the least.  The final horse that I like is the 2 horse, Schoolyard Dreams.  5 of six races he has ran have been in the money and he has a bullet workout to his credit May 6^th.  The only other horse I seriously considered was the D Wayne Lukas horse Dublin who I played on the bottom of my exactas, but I’m just not convinced the pace will play into his hard charging closes.  I expect a much softer pace this race and that means it will be pretty hard for a deep closer to sniff the board.

Final plays here are as follows:

Super Saver $20 Win – Place

$4 Exactas:

Jackson Bend, Lookin At Lucky with Super Saver

Super Saver with Jackson Bend, Lookin At Lucky

$2 Trifecta

Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky with Super Saver Looking At Lucky with Jackson Bend, Schoolyard Dreams, Yawanna Twist.

Good luck with your wagers!

In the Derby there are 20 horses and a world of equine craziness that takes part in the longest race of the horses lives to that point.  When it comes to the Preakness the length gets a bit better (we have 1/16 mile off of the distance), but we still have a large field, just it is usually closer to a dozen horses.  If we look back at what jockeys were on the winning horses and the horses that finish in the money (i.e. first, second or third) we see a pattern emerging.  It is pretty similar to what you would expect in that the best jockeys are finishing well.  And to be sure, they have the best horses underneath them normally.  If we take a detailed look it does improve the field of what consitutes good from what we saw in the Derby where only 3 current jockeys are players in the final.

Without further adieu here is the list of jockeys that have the best chance of being aboard a horse that finishes in the money in the run for the black eyed susans.

1. Kent Desormeaux

Desormeaux is a heavy weight in the jockey circles and his greatness surely shines in the Preakness.  At Pimlico he has ridden aboard 2 winners and 3 second place finishers in 12 races in his career.  That is a greater than 40% clip of being in the money and a 17% win percentage.  Both very impressive.  Leave him off your cards at your peril.

2. Mike Smith

On Mike Smith’s website you will see him lauding his many Breeders Cup wins, but he also shines very heavily in the Preakness.  In 10 starts in his career at the Preakness he has one first, one second and 2 thirds to his credit.  That equates to a 40% in the money clip and a 10% win percentage.  Impressive indeed.

3. Albarado

Unlike the Kentucky Derby where Albarado has ridden in 12 races, but only has 2 third places to show for it to go along with no first’s or seconds, Albarado has done very well in the Preakness.  In 7 career races he has a first, a second and a third to his name.  Again, greater than a 40% in the money clip and 14% win rate.  Both are among the best.

4. Calvin Borel

I’m going to include him even though he only has a total of 2 rides in this race, but the so called “Bo Rail” has finished in the top 2 in both with a win and a second.  Given the way that he has come alive late in his career you had better stand up and take notice.

So there you have it for the top jockeys to know come Preakness weekend.  Make sure to note which horses these jockeys are on and bet accordingly.  If you don’t include it in your horse racing system you are arguing with history.

1. Prefer horses whose pedigree, measured by the controversial but effective “dosage index,” shows the stamina to win a 1 1/4-mile race.

You can find all the dosage indexes at pedigree query.  I’m a fan for the most part with the dosage index.  It has been pretty good over the years with notable exceptions of Mine That Bird and Giacomo.  This year we have 3 horses over the magic number of 4:  Conveyance, Jackson Bend and Mission Impazible.

2. Prefer horses who were counted among the leaders of their age group for the previous season — rated within 10 pounds of the leader in the Experimental Free Handicap of 2-year-old colts and geldings.

You can find the experimental free handicap information at the jockey club website.  I’m a fan of this information because it is done prior to the races run in the year of the race.  In this year’s case we have 8 horses who match this criteria: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Make Music For Me, Awesome Act, Dublin, and Homeboykris.

3. Prefer horses who won races of one mile or more as 2-year-olds.

Makes sense since this will be the longest race that is run in these horses lives to this point.  Here is the list that won a race at least 1 mile in length: Lookin At Lucky, Ice Box, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Devil May Care (f), Jackson Bend, Homeboykris (g)

4. Throw out horses who didn’t win any race at age 2. No such late bloomer has won the Derby since Proud Clarion in ‘67.

We don’t want losers in our Derby picks!  Here is the list of those who failed to win as a 2 year old: Line of David, Make Music For Me, Paddy O’Prado

5. Prefer horses who had three or four races — no more, no less — between Jan. 1 and the Derby. Every winner since ‘84 had three or four.

Seems somewhat arbitrary, but we are following the method, so here is the list of those that did (most of them did anyway!): Ice Box, Line of David, Stately Victor, American Lion, Dean’s Kitten, Paddy O’Prado, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Dublin, Sidney’s Candy

6. Toss out any horse who didn’t prep in a 1 1/8-mile race.

Again goes back to the fact that this race is long and we need horses to have some distance under his belt.  Only Homeboykris didn’t have a prep in a 1 1/8  mile race.

7. Prefer horses who finished third or better in their final preps, like 38 of the past 40 Derby winners.

Makes sense, if they can’t finish on the board you are likely in trouble.  Only a select few horses didn’t do this, demerits to: Noble’s Promise, Make Music For Me, and Discreetly Mine.

8. Don’t be too impressed by horses who won their final preps. The past six Derby winners saved their best for the first Saturday in May.

An interesting phenomenon.  Here is the list of those that DIDN’T win their final prep race: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Make Music For Me, Paddy O’Prado, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Awesome Act, Dublin, Backtalk, Homeboykris (g)

9. Prefer horses ridden by jockeys of national renown.

This is a bit fuzzy for me.  I’ll stick with the criteria being if you have ridden in a Derby prior to this year.  Granted their are a few jockeys that are first timers and have quite impressive resumes, but the line had to be drawn somewhere.  If you have raced in this even before you have to have national recognition.  Here are those that haven’t raced in the Kentucky Derby before: Ice Box, American Lion, Make Music For Me, Conveyance, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Dublin, Backtalk, Sidney’s Candy.  Quite a few to be honest with you.

10. Don’t bet on the post-time favorite.

I guess we’ll see what happens, but almost assuredly Lookin At Lucky will be your post time favorite.

So where does that leave us?  When looking at the LA Times article they noted that a horse needed to hit on 8, 9, or 10 of these criteria.  Thankfully there are some that do.  Unfortunately, no one got a perfect 10.  One horse got a 9, Super Saver.  Others that had 8 included 9 horses: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Jackson Bend, Awesome Act, Dublin, and Homeboykris.

The system would say to stick with one of those 10 horses.  I guess to be fair it only limits the field to half of it original size, but some noted omissions include many people’s top pick Sidney’s Candy and Conveyance one of Baffert’s horses.  For me I weeded out the above list quite a bit further to remove Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Jackson Bend and Homeboykris as those that don’t have a real shot in my opinion.  That leaves Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Awesome Act, Dublin and my personal favorite Super Saver.

Why Super Saver you ask?  First is ridden by Calvin Borel who has been on the back of 2 of the past 3 Derby winners including last year’s miracle.  He has won on the Churchill Down’s surface at 1 mile in impressive fashion (5 lengths) has a top notch trainer in Pletcher and finished 2nd in a very contentious Arkansas Derby and appeared to want more ground at the end.  Good luck with your picks!

So, now that we know the trainers are targeting this race for a huge effort from their horse, why do we care?  Well as I stated above, a trainer has a large impact on that horse being ready to run large.  And this horse racing system of using the trainer as a key limiter to the field can be very profitable.  What we ideally want is to see a trainer that has been there before and doesn’t get all caught up in the pomp and circumstance of it all.  With that in mind, let’s look at three of the largest trainers in the horse racing game and understand why we should always be wary of their horses coming into this race.

D Wayne Lukas

When this guy enters a horse into the Derby, you had better take not.  He has 4 Kentucky Derby wins under his belt and boasts the largest number of Derby entrants in the history of the sport.  In addition, he has also amassed wins in every other major horse race on the planet with 5 Preakness Stakes wins, 4 Belmont Stakes with and 18 Breeders Cup races.  With all this he was inducted easily into the Horse Racing Hall of Fame.  If he enters a horse you had better stand up and take not.

Bob Baffert

Another monster in the horse racing game, Baffert boasts a resume that is nearly as impressive as Lukas’.  He has won the Kentucky Derby 4 times and has won 2 legs of the triple crown on 4 separate occasions.   When it comes to horse racing he knows his business and you would be well served to make note of his entrants.  And don’t be afraid to bet one of his entrants that no one is talking about.  That has been a good angle in Derby’s gone by.

Todd Pletcher

The rap on Pletcher is that he has never won the Derby.  After learning to ply his trade under the tutelage of the immortal D. Wayne Lukas Pletcher struck out on his own to make his own path.  His success is quite impressive as he has won the training titles at Gulfstream Park, Keeneland, Aqueduct, Saratoga, Belmont, and Monmouth Park.  In addition he has won the Belmont with the filly Rags To Riches that few gave a legitimate chance given the length of the race.

So there you have the 3 most illustrious trainers in the game today.  When you are handicapping your yearly look at the Derby make sure you know where these trainers are and what their horses look like.

With that in mind, we need to key on some things that all of the winners have in common.  Or at least what most of them have in common.  I’m not here to say that you could have an easy way to ferret out that Mine That Bird would win the 2009 Kentucky Derby going away.  Given the odds on that horse I would be very suspicious of anyone that would claim such a thing.   None the less, we need to consider the Mine That Bird’s and Giacomo’s of the horse racing world in the addition to the Barbaro’s and Big Brown’s.  Without further adieu, here is a list of the things that you should be taking into consideration when you look to place your bets.

Jockey at the Kentucky Derby

Here is one thing that we can take away from the 2009 derby.  Calvin Borel rode a race for the ages on Mine that Bird

Few will forget the great ride by Calvin Borel in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. It is a great example of a jockey having a considerable impact on what horse won the race.

and found a way to capture the rail and scoot into an improbable win.  This is something that is shared by most of the derby winning horses, a jockey that has been there before.  This was shared by the horses in 2009 (Mine That Bird), 2008 (Big Brown), 2007 (Street Sense), and 2006 (Barbaro) as perfect examples.  Now to be fair, there are obviously more than 1 or 2 experienced jockeys in the field each year.

An Experienced Trainer Can Be A Harbinger of a Kentucky Derby Winner

When it comes to the derby few things can truly get a person ready for all that goes on.  Given that this is often the largest race in a trainers career the first time they enter the race it is no surprise that not many first time trainers win in the derby.  One should look to see if the trainer of a given horse has been in the derby before and also how his horses fared.

Raise A Native a Force In The Kentucky Derby

When it comes to lineage there is a driving force in winning this race.  And the name to keep in mind is Raise A Native.  This horse is on the sire’s lineage and is quite strong in determining a legitimate charge in this race.  In fact, from 2000 to 2004 every winner drew his lineage through the Raise A Native line on the sire’s side.  In the recent past 2 notable exceptions come to mind which are Big Brown and Barbaro which don’t follow this line (Northern Dancer and Turn To respectively).  The key things with both of these horses is that they were two of the bigger freaks in horse racing of the past 20 years, which is something to keep in mind.  In other words, if the horse isn’t a physical specimen you would be better served finding a charge that has the Raise A Native line backing his blood.

Post position is a key factor in the Derby

When there are 20 horses fighting to the largest prize in horse racing it can get a bit crowded to say the least.  It is this very reason that an inside post (positions 1 to 4) can be a large hindrance to a horse’s chances at winning.  For a similar reason, the outside posts lead to an even longer route to the finish for the horses starting there.  Given the distance of this race is the longest they have ever faced to date (and unless they end up running the Belmont Stakes, it will almost assuredly be the longest of their entire career) this can be a consternating factor.

Look Keenly At The Kentucky Derby Prep Races

A key thing to note is that the majority of winners have had a couple of key things in their recent histories.  They have both taken part in a race that is 1 1/8 miles in length (the longest of their careers to that date and the longest available outside of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes) and they finished in the top 3 in that race.  This isn’t a hard fast rule, but it does go along with many horses that have won this prestigious race.

So there you have some key things to look at when handicapping the Kentucky Derby.  Take the above things into account and you will have a leg up the competition.  If you can find many of the above attributes on a horse that is at long odds you have a formula that could be very lucrative for you.

What do we know about Polytrack to date?

This is likely the best place to start.  Are there any similarities to date in regards to the poly tracks already in place across the country.  One thing you will hear over and over again is that it is a closer favoring surface.  Dirt is notorious for being a front runner surface (granted not all tracks are this way, but in general that is the consensus) and a horse that has a front running style form often has an advantage over this surface.  Or at least a horse that is one that likes to stay just off the pace.  A deep closer often gets too far behind on dirt surfaces unless the pace is strongly contested.  This almost always is not the case with polytrack.  The polytrack surface favors deep closers and mid pack runners more so than a front running type of horse.  This isn’t to say that a front runner can’t win on the surface, just that you should demand top notch form and athleticism from the horse if they are likely to take this route to win.

For those that are thinking that information is all fine and dandy, but how does it help me when I am at the track, you should take a good look at your racing form (I prefer the BRIS past performances, but similar information is available from Daily Racing Form past performances as well as Equibase’s past peroformances).   Look at the position of the horse at the 1^st and 2^nd call to determine what type of style the horse prefers to run.  If the horse is always in 1^st or 2^nd place at the first two calls than this is a front running horse and likely will have trouble on the poly.  If it starts out 5^th to 10^th place often and closes ground at the end to win you are looking at a presser or a closer than will likely do better on the poly.

What other information helps define our poly track horse racing system?

A key thing to consider when handicapping a race that is full of top notch horses that haven’t run on the poly surface along with those that have is to look at what surfaces they did normally run on.  A horse that races largely or exclusively on the dirt is likely to struggle on the poly.  The surface is so much different that dirt it really doesn’t translate well in terms of past vs. current and future performances.  However, there is one surface that translates great, and that is the turf.  When all the European horses dominated the 2008 Breeders Cup races the initial consensus was that the horses from overseas were better suited for the poly surface.  With the 2009 Breeders Cup now complete I think we can all agree it was the fact that the Euro horses all race on turf as the key thing they had it common with success on the poly track.  Gio Ponti is a great example of this from this past fall.  That horse was a very impressive turf horse that had the Breeders Cup Classic race basically won when a late surge by an impressive Zenyatta derailed his win bid to finish a game 2^nd place.  Coupling this with the previous year’s results sure leads us to favor these turf horses when it comes time to head to the betting window.  As an aside, the darling of the triple crown races Mine That Bird was a non-factor in the race further cementing the fact that dirt horses struggle on the poly.

The premise of course is to help ensure that we are cashing tickets.  The human mind is an interesting animal.  There have been several studies that the human mind is better off with a bunch of small wins and one monumental loss than it is with a bunch of small losses and one monumental win.  Think about that for a second, our minds would rather us losing big than winning big if the only two options are what I just laid out.  That is something to keep in mind when it comes to betting on the ponies.  Small wins.  And in many cases that is what this system will allow you to have.  Granted if you do pick the right horse you win both bets and are in for a pretty good payday, but if you only win the place bet you likely will have small overall win.  Cashing tickets is good for the human psyche.  I won’t downplay that portion of this system, it does lead to cashing many more tickets.

Ok, apart from the human aspect of this equation, let’s look at the way we should employ this racing system.  Much like any wager, we really need to be finding a horse that isn’t the favorite and using a win place bet to wager.  This is somewhat common knowledge, but the point is a good one to keep in mind.  Unless you are getting 3-1 or better on a horse it is really hard to make any money betting on it.  Depending on the track the favorite horse can be as low as even odds are worse.  This is no way to win at the track.  The fact is that if you find a way to win 40% of your bets you are doing especially well. At even money you are losing long term with this strategy.  And likely if you cash tickets in 25% of your bets you are doing pretty well as compared to most people.  So like all of horse racing, we want to look at the favorite of the betting public and see if we have any legitimate reasons to believe they won’t win the race (or even better won’t finish in the money).  If we can’t do that then you are much better off skipping the race.  If you can find a good reason that the public favorite is a false favorite then game on.  Go through the rest of the horses and select a horse that you are confident has a chance to win and place your bet.  At this point it truly is that simple.

So, you are likely similar to me when reading this and wondering what the heck a “trip” is when it comes to horse racing.  At first I thought that it literally meant that a horse tripped and fell or at least stumbled while running and therefore was having a hard time ending up in the money.  But that wouldn’t explain a “perfect trip” that was talked about often.  So to be clear, when we are talking about a “trip” a horse makes during a race it literally means what route did it take during the race.  In other words, the “trip” is the exact path that the horse takes while running the race which has a determination on the outcome.  And once I realized this I began to see things.  A horse nearly falls down out of the gate and somehow rallies to finish 3rd.  Or perhaps a horse is given the inside rail at will and sees no competition to find a way to its “perfect trip” and therefore finished better in the race that would otherwise be expected.

So what are common things to look for when attempting to trip handicap.  First things I am looking at is whether they had a slow start that either wasn’t their fault or was their fault but likely won’t be a common occurrence.  Did the horse stumble out of the gate.  Did she nearly buck her rider off just prior to the start of the race.  Did another horse bump the horse and knock it off stride at some point during the race (this often happens at the start).  When coming around the home stretch did a horse want to make a serious move inside, but was shut off by a bevy of other horses.  These are all things that likely won’t happen in every race and therefore we should expect that horse to see a better “trip” the next race.  We can use this information to make a calculated guess that it will finish better than the last race.

So how do we put this into action?  First off we obviously have to be watching the race with our own two eyes to get this information.  You won’t get this information in your BRIS past performances (at best you will get a “bumped break” or similar comment but I wouldn’t count on too much).  This happens by either being at the track or finding a way to watch the race on the television.  TVG is a great way to get this information if you have cable or satellite TV.  Or perhaps your track has a daily or weekly race recap on your local station.  I know my local track has one on late at night on a local channel after each race day.  Once you have this information it helps to write down the name of the horse and a quick note as to what happened and why you like the horse.  Perhaps something like: tripped out of gate and fell to last, but managed to finish 3rd by a neck charging hard.  Or similar.  The next time this horse is in a race you will be waiting to see if it is a legit contender and luckily you likely will be getting better odds than you otherwise should.  The general public has almost no chance of actually having this information at their fingertips and won’t be able to put it into use.

I have found this trip handicapping horse racing system to be especially helpful when talking about young horses.  A young horse almost always wants to be in the lead.  They have a hard time passing horses late in general and are notorious for wanting the lead.  If you find a horse that had a bad start, yet still found a way to be passing horses late and finished respectably you likely have an underlay on your hands and over time this will proved to be profitable.  And with horse racing betting this is really all we are looking for!

Let’s be honest, if you are actually going to find a system out there that actually works you are either going to have to pay through the nose to get it or have pictures of the person who developed it in a series of compromising positions.  If it made so much money they would be employing the system themselves!  Seriously, how much money could these people make using their superior system on the big race days?  Think about the money flowing at the Kentucky Derby and the average payout in the Derby.  With that much money flowing around you could make an absolute killing if you truly had a system that was as good as they advertise.

So what are you going to get out of this site?  There won’t be some in your face sales pitch for a can’t miss system, that is for sure.  What you will find is tried and true methods that are sure to give you at least some edge when you are out punting on your own.  You will need to put in some time on your own in addition to what you read here in order to make this a go.

Horse racing is a tough nut to crack.  That isn’t to say that it is impossible to make money at the track, just that the deck is stacked against you.  I’m sure many will say that they are far superior to the average bettor and therefore are destined to great wealth.  This could be the fact and you could still lose money.  You are likely looking at me cross-eyed at this point.  Let me explain, all horse tracks work on a pari-mutuel system to pay out the bets.  In other words, the losers pay the winners.  But one key thing to remember, the track takes out their cut before they pay the winners!  For the win, place and show pools this is typically 19%, but when you are talking exotics like exactas, trifectas, superfectas and pick six pools that percentage sky rockets, often to 30%.  This is a key point to remember.

So there you have it, the inaugeral post to this site and an overview of what the best horse racing systems will have to offer over the course of this website.  From the simplicity of betting strategies to the heavy analytical ideas used over the course of an entire track meet you will find some ideas on how to apply these to your horse racing wagering.