Free Horse Racing Systems

Ah yes, the 3rd leg of the triple crown.  The final stop for a potential triple crown horse.  Of course, looking at the field for this running of the Belmont we have no such luck.  2 different horses won the first 2 legs of the triple crown (with Super Saver failing badly after being placed very well for the final stretch run) so we don’t have to worry about such a lofty outcome.  Given the history of the race it is known to blow up the mutual windows at times.  Given this the chalky finishes of many Preakness Stakes are pushed back for wide open finishes in this very long race.  Given that as a backdrop, here is my 2010 Belmont Stakes handicapping.

A look at dosage in the 2010 Belmont Stakes

The first thing to consider when looking at the Belmont Stakes is whether these horses can get the distance.  The Kentucky Derby is a long race, the longest of many horses lives.  The Belmont Stakes takes that to a whole other level given its 1 1/2 mile distance.  Low dosage numbers are the key here if at all possible, with the mystical number being 4.00 or lower.  Unfortunately this does not eliminate a single horse in this year’s field as they all have a dosage index of 4.00 or lower (most significantly lower).  On the high side of this equation are Fly Down (4.00), Game On Dude (3.67) and Ice Box (3.36).

A look at Jockey in the 2010 Belmont Stakes

Another one of my favorite angles, the jockey seems to have a way about making the race end in a certain way.  The key here being that many of these jockeys have not raced a ton in the Belmont.  Desormeaux is not in the race, so that narrows it a bit.  Of the remaining jockeys with any amount of history the Belmont we have Mike Smith (aboard Drosselmeyer) and Jon Velazquez (aboard Fly Down).  Both boast an above 30% in the money finish in more than a dozen past Belmont mounts.  Leave them out of your picks at your peril.

Pace an important factor in 2010 Belmont Stakes

It is often said “pace makes race” and this was certainly the fact du jour in the Preakness.  Looking at the Belmont field we appear to have a very similar type pattern.  The only early speed horse is First Dude (you know, the only early speed horse in the Preakness Stakes that almost shocked the world and wired it).  You have to be cognizant of a horse that is the exact opposite of every other horse in a race.  First Dude is conspicuous in this regard for this race.  Couple that with the fact that the deep closers seldomly do well in the Belmont and you have a recipe for a early speed horse making some noise.  On top of all that, the early speed has played very well in this meet at Belmont.

Who has the bullet workouts prior to the 2010 Belmont Stakes?

One final place to look for an angle is the workouts.  Given the first 2 legs had prominent horses in the top 3 that had bullets, let’s not forget them here.  The horses with the bullets coming into the Belmont are: Fly Down (with a 47 and 2 @ 4f), Make Music For Me (with a 1:10 and 1 @ 5f), and Drosselmeyer (with a 59 and 3 @ 4f).  Let’s make sure we keep those horses in mind here.

Final 2010 Belmont Stakes Handicapping

Given all of the above I need to play First Dude as he is the only early speed in the race.  I expect him to be on the lead and be hard to chase down late.  Couple that with a couple of the bullet workout horses with great jockeys (Drosselmeyer and Fly Down) and you have a winning combination I think.  Good luck with your 2010 Belmont picks!

The 2^nd leg of the triple crown is upon us.  Given the relatively weak field of 3 year olds this year it is somewhat of a wide open race.  One thing we have learned over the years with the run for the black eyed susans is that we need to pay close attention to the Kentucky Derby results and not lose sight of what we learned there.  Remember that the Derby was the longest race of those horses lives to date, and with that 20 horse field it was a crazy one to say the least.  Don’t be like me last year and skip out on playing the winner of the Derby (Mine That Bird) because I believe he was an inferior horse that got a great ride.  Yes, given the success of both Mine That Bird and Giacomo in the Preakness, not to mention all the well thought of winners of the Derby, it is with a penchant for losing money that we wouldn’t pay attention.

Now, given that I was actually able to ferret out the winner in my 2010 Kentucky Derby Handicapping I released a few weeks ago, you are going to find me very hard pressed to get off that horse now.  Especially given the impressive performance he displayed on that muddy track with all those horses.  Given my last article talking about the importance of the jockey in your Preakness Stakes Horse Racing system don’t forget to keep a special eye on those horses with top jocks aboard.  So we need to pay attention to horses that are ridden by Calvin Borel (Super Saver), Mike Smith (Jackson Bend) and Kent Desormeaux (Paddy O Prado).  Another key jockey is Albarado, but unfortunately for him he is not in the race.  Super Saver will be prominently featured in my picks due to his impressive win at the derby as well as his jockey and trainer combination.  Jackson Bend had a poor showing in the derby, but Mike Smith is still a great jockey and if you can look past that last performance he actually has finished very well in many big time races.  In addition check out that blazing fast workout he posted his last tune up for this race.  The last horse here is Paddy O Prado, who just about had the best trip possible in the Derby and faded fast at the end to finish 3^rd.  Against what many will think here I am going to toss him from my top 3 and go elsewhere for the Preakness.  I didn’t like Desormeaux’s end to that race either.

Now to find some others worth playing to package with Super Saver and perhaps Jackson Bend.  You have to at least consider that Lookin At Lucky has a great shot here.  With a top trainer in Baffert as well as a great race given his trip in the Derby coming out of the dreaded 1 hole I think he is a play here.  Toss at your peril.

Given that the only horse that won its last race in this field is Super Saver it does leave a bit to be desired.  Especially considering that so many of the Derby horses passed on this race.  A horse that has to intrigue people is the 5 horse, Yawanna Twist.  Lightly raced (only 4 races) he boasts 2 firsts and 2 seconds.  An impressive line to say the least.  The final horse that I like is the 2 horse, Schoolyard Dreams.  5 of six races he has ran have been in the money and he has a bullet workout to his credit May 6^th.  The only other horse I seriously considered was the D Wayne Lukas horse Dublin who I played on the bottom of my exactas, but I’m just not convinced the pace will play into his hard charging closes.  I expect a much softer pace this race and that means it will be pretty hard for a deep closer to sniff the board.

Final plays here are as follows:

Super Saver $20 Win – Place

$4 Exactas:

Jackson Bend, Lookin At Lucky with Super Saver

Super Saver with Jackson Bend, Lookin At Lucky

$2 Trifecta

Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky with Super Saver Looking At Lucky with Jackson Bend, Schoolyard Dreams, Yawanna Twist.

Good luck with your wagers!

Similar to the Kentucky Derby, when it comes to the triple crown races the big boys are always involved.  This doesn’t even take into account the increased scrutiny by the public and the betting aficionados.  When you look at your Kentucky Derby horse racing system it weighed heavily on past precedence for many factors.  One of the key ones was the jockey.  After taking a look back at the recent past for the Preakness Stakes we see a similar concept emerge.

In the Derby there are 20 horses and a world of equine craziness that takes part in the longest race of the horses lives to that point.  When it comes to the Preakness the length gets a bit better (we have 1/16 mile off of the distance), but we still have a large field, just it is usually closer to a dozen horses.  If we look back at what jockeys were on the winning horses and the horses that finish in the money (i.e. first, second or third) we see a pattern emerging.  It is pretty similar to what you would expect in that the best jockeys are finishing well.  And to be sure, they have the best horses underneath them normally.  If we take a detailed look it does improve the field of what consitutes good from what we saw in the Derby where only 3 current jockeys are players in the final.

Without further adieu here is the list of jockeys that have the best chance of being aboard a horse that finishes in the money in the run for the black eyed susans.

1. Kent Desormeaux

Desormeaux is a heavy weight in the jockey circles and his greatness surely shines in the Preakness.  At Pimlico he has ridden aboard 2 winners and 3 second place finishers in 12 races in his career.  That is a greater than 40% clip of being in the money and a 17% win percentage.  Both very impressive.  Leave him off your cards at your peril.

2. Mike Smith

On Mike Smith’s website you will see him lauding his many Breeders Cup wins, but he also shines very heavily in the Preakness.  In 10 starts in his career at the Preakness he has one first, one second and 2 thirds to his credit.  That equates to a 40% in the money clip and a 10% win percentage.  Impressive indeed.

3. Albarado

Unlike the Kentucky Derby where Albarado has ridden in 12 races, but only has 2 third places to show for it to go along with no first’s or seconds, Albarado has done very well in the Preakness.  In 7 career races he has a first, a second and a third to his name.  Again, greater than a 40% in the money clip and 14% win rate.  Both are among the best.

4. Calvin Borel

I’m going to include him even though he only has a total of 2 rides in this race, but the so called “Bo Rail” has finished in the top 2 in both with a win and a second.  Given the way that he has come alive late in his career you had better stand up and take notice.

So there you have it for the top jockeys to know come Preakness weekend.  Make sure to note which horses these jockeys are on and bet accordingly.  If you don’t include it in your horse racing system you are arguing with history.