Ah yes, the 3rd leg of the triple crown.  The final stop for a potential triple crown horse.  Of course, looking at the field for this running of the Belmont we have no such luck.  2 different horses won the first 2 legs of the triple crown (with Super Saver failing badly after being placed very well for the final stretch run) so we don’t have to worry about such a lofty outcome.  Given the history of the race it is known to blow up the mutual windows at times.  Given this the chalky finishes of many Preakness Stakes are pushed back for wide open finishes in this very long race.  Given that as a backdrop, here is my 2010 Belmont Stakes handicapping.

A look at dosage in the 2010 Belmont Stakes

The first thing to consider when looking at the Belmont Stakes is whether these horses can get the distance.  The Kentucky Derby is a long race, the longest of many horses lives.  The Belmont Stakes takes that to a whole other level given its 1 1/2 mile distance.  Low dosage numbers are the key here if at all possible, with the mystical number being 4.00 or lower.  Unfortunately this does not eliminate a single horse in this year’s field as they all have a dosage index of 4.00 or lower (most significantly lower).  On the high side of this equation are Fly Down (4.00), Game On Dude (3.67) and Ice Box (3.36).

A look at Jockey in the 2010 Belmont Stakes

Another one of my favorite angles, the jockey seems to have a way about making the race end in a certain way.  The key here being that many of these jockeys have not raced a ton in the Belmont.  Desormeaux is not in the race, so that narrows it a bit.  Of the remaining jockeys with any amount of history the Belmont we have Mike Smith (aboard Drosselmeyer) and Jon Velazquez (aboard Fly Down).  Both boast an above 30% in the money finish in more than a dozen past Belmont mounts.  Leave them out of your picks at your peril.

Pace an important factor in 2010 Belmont Stakes

It is often said “pace makes race” and this was certainly the fact du jour in the Preakness.  Looking at the Belmont field we appear to have a very similar type pattern.  The only early speed horse is First Dude (you know, the only early speed horse in the Preakness Stakes that almost shocked the world and wired it).  You have to be cognizant of a horse that is the exact opposite of every other horse in a race.  First Dude is conspicuous in this regard for this race.  Couple that with the fact that the deep closers seldomly do well in the Belmont and you have a recipe for a early speed horse making some noise.  On top of all that, the early speed has played very well in this meet at Belmont.

Who has the bullet workouts prior to the 2010 Belmont Stakes?

One final place to look for an angle is the workouts.  Given the first 2 legs had prominent horses in the top 3 that had bullets, let’s not forget them here.  The horses with the bullets coming into the Belmont are: Fly Down (with a 47 and 2 @ 4f), Make Music For Me (with a 1:10 and 1 @ 5f), and Drosselmeyer (with a 59 and 3 @ 4f).  Let’s make sure we keep those horses in mind here.

Final 2010 Belmont Stakes Handicapping

Given all of the above I need to play First Dude as he is the only early speed in the race.  I expect him to be on the lead and be hard to chase down late.  Couple that with a couple of the bullet workout horses with great jockeys (Drosselmeyer and Fly Down) and you have a winning combination I think.  Good luck with your 2010 Belmont picks!