Free Horse Racing Systems

When it comes to Kentucky Derby horse racing systems there tends to be a ton of them.  Everyone has their own way to handicap the race, and given the craziness that has occurred in the past at the Derby, there is no wonder so many different styles have emerged.  With Giacomo and Mine That Bird as recent examples of hugely priced horses to win the run for the roses it makes it all the more interesting.  A system that intrigues me and that I haven’t used before is one developed a while ago by a writer at the LA Times.  I’ll make no bones about this, I’m literally using his system step by step to see what it ferrets out.  You can find his article from back in the day here.  Without further adieu, to the selection criteria

1. Prefer horses whose pedigree, measured by the controversial but effective “dosage index,” shows the stamina to win a 1 1/4-mile race.

You can find all the dosage indexes at pedigree query.  I’m a fan for the most part with the dosage index.  It has been pretty good over the years with notable exceptions of Mine That Bird and Giacomo.  This year we have 3 horses over the magic number of 4:  Conveyance, Jackson Bend and Mission Impazible.

2. Prefer horses who were counted among the leaders of their age group for the previous season — rated within 10 pounds of the leader in the Experimental Free Handicap of 2-year-old colts and geldings.

You can find the experimental free handicap information at the jockey club website.  I’m a fan of this information because it is done prior to the races run in the year of the race.  In this year’s case we have 8 horses who match this criteria: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Make Music For Me, Awesome Act, Dublin, and Homeboykris.

3. Prefer horses who won races of one mile or more as 2-year-olds.

Makes sense since this will be the longest race that is run in these horses lives to this point.  Here is the list that won a race at least 1 mile in length: Lookin At Lucky, Ice Box, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Devil May Care (f), Jackson Bend, Homeboykris (g)

4. Throw out horses who didn’t win any race at age 2. No such late bloomer has won the Derby since Proud Clarion in ‘67.

We don’t want losers in our Derby picks!  Here is the list of those who failed to win as a 2 year old: Line of David, Make Music For Me, Paddy O’Prado

5. Prefer horses who had three or four races — no more, no less — between Jan. 1 and the Derby. Every winner since ‘84 had three or four.

Seems somewhat arbitrary, but we are following the method, so here is the list of those that did (most of them did anyway!): Ice Box, Line of David, Stately Victor, American Lion, Dean’s Kitten, Paddy O’Prado, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Dublin, Sidney’s Candy

6. Toss out any horse who didn’t prep in a 1 1/8-mile race.

Again goes back to the fact that this race is long and we need horses to have some distance under his belt.  Only Homeboykris didn’t have a prep in a 1 1/8  mile race.

7. Prefer horses who finished third or better in their final preps, like 38 of the past 40 Derby winners.

Makes sense, if they can’t finish on the board you are likely in trouble.  Only a select few horses didn’t do this, demerits to: Noble’s Promise, Make Music For Me, and Discreetly Mine.

8. Don’t be too impressed by horses who won their final preps. The past six Derby winners saved their best for the first Saturday in May.

An interesting phenomenon.  Here is the list of those that DIDN’T win their final prep race: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Make Music For Me, Paddy O’Prado, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Awesome Act, Dublin, Backtalk, Homeboykris (g)

9. Prefer horses ridden by jockeys of national renown.

This is a bit fuzzy for me.  I’ll stick with the criteria being if you have ridden in a Derby prior to this year.  Granted their are a few jockeys that are first timers and have quite impressive resumes, but the line had to be drawn somewhere.  If you have raced in this even before you have to have national recognition.  Here are those that haven’t raced in the Kentucky Derby before: Ice Box, American Lion, Make Music For Me, Conveyance, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, Dublin, Backtalk, Sidney’s Candy.  Quite a few to be honest with you.

10. Don’t bet on the post-time favorite.

I guess we’ll see what happens, but almost assuredly Lookin At Lucky will be your post time favorite.

So where does that leave us?  When looking at the LA Times article they noted that a horse needed to hit on 8, 9, or 10 of these criteria.  Thankfully there are some that do.  Unfortunately, no one got a perfect 10.  One horse got a 9, Super Saver.  Others that had 8 included 9 horses: Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Jackson Bend, Awesome Act, Dublin, and Homeboykris.

The system would say to stick with one of those 10 horses.  I guess to be fair it only limits the field to half of it original size, but some noted omissions include many people’s top pick Sidney’s Candy and Conveyance one of Baffert’s horses.  For me I weeded out the above list quite a bit further to remove Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Jackson Bend and Homeboykris as those that don’t have a real shot in my opinion.  That leaves Lookin At Lucky, Noble’s Promise, Awesome Act, Dublin and my personal favorite Super Saver.

Why Super Saver you ask?  First is ridden by Calvin Borel who has been on the back of 2 of the past 3 Derby winners including last year’s miracle.  He has won on the Churchill Down’s surface at 1 mile in impressive fashion (5 lengths) has a top notch trainer in Pletcher and finished 2nd in a very contentious Arkansas Derby and appeared to want more ground at the end.  Good luck with your picks!

Few things in horse racing have a larger impact on the outcome besides the horse itself than the trainer.  This person is saddled with making sure that the horse is fit and ready to run its best when it hit the race of choice.  Of course, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby there is no bigger race in horse racing so we know that these trainers are trying to have that horse placed as good as possible for the run for the roses.  The reason I bring that up is that in many cases races leading up to a big race can serve many purposes and so watching to see how a trainer is planning to use that race can be as much about handicapping the race as any other.  With the Derby, we don’t have to worry about that.  One win and that trainer will be on the air for quite some time and earn himself quite a bit of money in subsequent years.

So, now that we know the trainers are targeting this race for a huge effort from their horse, why do we care?  Well as I stated above, a trainer has a large impact on that horse being ready to run large.  And this horse racing system of using the trainer as a key limiter to the field can be very profitable.  What we ideally want is to see a trainer that has been there before and doesn’t get all caught up in the pomp and circumstance of it all.  With that in mind, let’s look at three of the largest trainers in the horse racing game and understand why we should always be wary of their horses coming into this race.

D Wayne Lukas

When this guy enters a horse into the Derby, you had better take not.  He has 4 Kentucky Derby wins under his belt and boasts the largest number of Derby entrants in the history of the sport.  In addition, he has also amassed wins in every other major horse race on the planet with 5 Preakness Stakes wins, 4 Belmont Stakes with and 18 Breeders Cup races.  With all this he was inducted easily into the Horse Racing Hall of Fame.  If he enters a horse you had better stand up and take not.

Bob Baffert

Another monster in the horse racing game, Baffert boasts a resume that is nearly as impressive as Lukas’.  He has won the Kentucky Derby 4 times and has won 2 legs of the triple crown on 4 separate occasions.   When it comes to horse racing he knows his business and you would be well served to make note of his entrants.  And don’t be afraid to bet one of his entrants that no one is talking about.  That has been a good angle in Derby’s gone by.

Todd Pletcher

The rap on Pletcher is that he has never won the Derby.  After learning to ply his trade under the tutelage of the immortal D. Wayne Lukas Pletcher struck out on his own to make his own path.  His success is quite impressive as he has won the training titles at Gulfstream Park, Keeneland, Aqueduct, Saratoga, Belmont, and Monmouth Park.  In addition he has won the Belmont with the filly Rags To Riches that few gave a legitimate chance given the length of the race.

So there you have the 3 most illustrious trainers in the game today.  When you are handicapping your yearly look at the Derby make sure you know where these trainers are and what their horses look like.

When it comes to horse racing there are few things that are more exciting that the running for the roses, or aptly named the Kentucky Derby.  Widely considered the most exciting two minutes in sports, the race is the craziest thing you will see in the horse racing today.  I mean, really, 20 of the best horses in the entire world screaming down the track bumping and bruising each other all in the longest race they will have run in their entire lives to that point.  On top of that, the pomp and circumstance of the day is world known with mint julip’s and large hats adorning the female contingent at the race.  And to top all of that off the payouts on the race have been mind boggling over the past couple decades.  All of this makes a Kentucky Derby horse racing system all the more important.

With that in mind, we need to key on some things that all of the winners have in common.  Or at least what most of them have in common.  I’m not here to say that you could have an easy way to ferret out that Mine That Bird would win the 2009 Kentucky Derby going away.  Given the odds on that horse I would be very suspicious of anyone that would claim such a thing.   None the less, we need to consider the Mine That Bird’s and Giacomo’s of the horse racing world in the addition to the Barbaro’s and Big Brown’s.  Without further adieu, here is a list of the things that you should be taking into consideration when you look to place your bets.

Jockey at the Kentucky Derby

Here is one thing that we can take away from the 2009 derby.  Calvin Borel rode a race for the ages on Mine that Bird

Few will forget the great ride by Calvin Borel in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. It is a great example of a jockey having a considerable impact on what horse won the race.

and found a way to capture the rail and scoot into an improbable win.  This is something that is shared by most of the derby winning horses, a jockey that has been there before.  This was shared by the horses in 2009 (Mine That Bird), 2008 (Big Brown), 2007 (Street Sense), and 2006 (Barbaro) as perfect examples.  Now to be fair, there are obviously more than 1 or 2 experienced jockeys in the field each year.

An Experienced Trainer Can Be A Harbinger of a Kentucky Derby Winner

When it comes to the derby few things can truly get a person ready for all that goes on.  Given that this is often the largest race in a trainers career the first time they enter the race it is no surprise that not many first time trainers win in the derby.  One should look to see if the trainer of a given horse has been in the derby before and also how his horses fared.

Raise A Native a Force In The Kentucky Derby

When it comes to lineage there is a driving force in winning this race.  And the name to keep in mind is Raise A Native.  This horse is on the sire’s lineage and is quite strong in determining a legitimate charge in this race.  In fact, from 2000 to 2004 every winner drew his lineage through the Raise A Native line on the sire’s side.  In the recent past 2 notable exceptions come to mind which are Big Brown and Barbaro which don’t follow this line (Northern Dancer and Turn To respectively).  The key things with both of these horses is that they were two of the bigger freaks in horse racing of the past 20 years, which is something to keep in mind.  In other words, if the horse isn’t a physical specimen you would be better served finding a charge that has the Raise A Native line backing his blood.

Post position is a key factor in the Derby

When there are 20 horses fighting to the largest prize in horse racing it can get a bit crowded to say the least.  It is this very reason that an inside post (positions 1 to 4) can be a large hindrance to a horse’s chances at winning.  For a similar reason, the outside posts lead to an even longer route to the finish for the horses starting there.  Given the distance of this race is the longest they have ever faced to date (and unless they end up running the Belmont Stakes, it will almost assuredly be the longest of their entire career) this can be a consternating factor.

Look Keenly At The Kentucky Derby Prep Races

A key thing to note is that the majority of winners have had a couple of key things in their recent histories.  They have both taken part in a race that is 1 1/8 miles in length (the longest of their careers to that date and the longest available outside of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes) and they finished in the top 3 in that race.  This isn’t a hard fast rule, but it does go along with many horses that have won this prestigious race.

So there you have some key things to look at when handicapping the Kentucky Derby.  Take the above things into account and you will have a leg up the competition.  If you can find many of the above attributes on a horse that is at long odds you have a formula that could be very lucrative for you.