Free Horse Racing Systems

The advent of the poly track has thrown a monkey wrench into the entire horse wagering game of late.  To be sure, there was an excellent reason to go to the material: it just is plain better for the longevity of the horses lives to run on this surface.  The traditional dirt surface is wrought with inconsistencies in terms of moisture and material composition and is very hard on the hooves and ankles of horses.  There is little doubt that more and more tracks will be changing to this new surface in the coming years.  On top of that, several prominent tracks have already switched including Arlington Park in Illinois and Santa Anita in California so there is already great reason to find a way to handicap this surface.  There are tons of horse racing systems designed for both the turf and the dirt, but with the relatively newness of Polytrack there are far fewer specific to this surface.  And from any that have tried, the surface surely plays a lot different than the traditional dirt surface that many tried to handicap by.  The beauty of course is that if we can find any angles to play we will have a much greater chance at being profitable since the surface is relatively new and not many people know how to ferret out the true contenders on this surface.

What do we know about Polytrack to date?

This is likely the best place to start.  Are there any similarities to date in regards to the poly tracks already in place across the country.  One thing you will hear over and over again is that it is a closer favoring surface.  Dirt is notorious for being a front runner surface (granted not all tracks are this way, but in general that is the consensus) and a horse that has a front running style form often has an advantage over this surface.  Or at least a horse that is one that likes to stay just off the pace.  A deep closer often gets too far behind on dirt surfaces unless the pace is strongly contested.  This almost always is not the case with polytrack.  The polytrack surface favors deep closers and mid pack runners more so than a front running type of horse.  This isn’t to say that a front runner can’t win on the surface, just that you should demand top notch form and athleticism from the horse if they are likely to take this route to win.

For those that are thinking that information is all fine and dandy, but how does it help me when I am at the track, you should take a good look at your racing form (I prefer the BRIS past performances, but similar information is available from Daily Racing Form past performances as well as Equibase’s past peroformances).   Look at the position of the horse at the 1^st and 2^nd call to determine what type of style the horse prefers to run.  If the horse is always in 1^st or 2^nd place at the first two calls than this is a front running horse and likely will have trouble on the poly.  If it starts out 5^th to 10^th place often and closes ground at the end to win you are looking at a presser or a closer than will likely do better on the poly.

What other information helps define our poly track horse racing system?

A key thing to consider when handicapping a race that is full of top notch horses that haven’t run on the poly surface along with those that have is to look at what surfaces they did normally run on.  A horse that races largely or exclusively on the dirt is likely to struggle on the poly.  The surface is so much different that dirt it really doesn’t translate well in terms of past vs. current and future performances.  However, there is one surface that translates great, and that is the turf.  When all the European horses dominated the 2008 Breeders Cup races the initial consensus was that the horses from overseas were better suited for the poly surface.  With the 2009 Breeders Cup now complete I think we can all agree it was the fact that the Euro horses all race on turf as the key thing they had it common with success on the poly track.  Gio Ponti is a great example of this from this past fall.  That horse was a very impressive turf horse that had the Breeders Cup Classic race basically won when a late surge by an impressive Zenyatta derailed his win bid to finish a game 2^nd place.  Coupling this with the previous year’s results sure leads us to favor these turf horses when it comes time to head to the betting window.  As an aside, the darling of the triple crown races Mine That Bird was a non-factor in the race further cementing the fact that dirt horses struggle on the poly.

A common strategy among punters is to go with the classic win-place bet   The premise being that if your horse that you chose out of the field runs a good race, but is nosed out at the end you still win some money or at least break even.  The win place is a common betting strategy that many pundits have pimped over the year as on of the a solid horse racing systems.  I won’t argue too hard as to this being a good system.  It definitely has its merits.  The only thing that I will say is that it seems somewhat of a defeatist attitude to place a bet that you completely hedge that is won’t come in (i.e. putting a place bet to cover the chance that your horse doesn’t win).  So here is a rundown of how to use a win place betting horse racing system.

The premise of course is to help ensure that we are cashing tickets.  The human mind is an interesting animal.  There have been several studies that the human mind is better off with a bunch of small wins and one monumental loss than it is with a bunch of small losses and one monumental win.  Think about that for a second, our minds would rather us losing big than winning big if the only two options are what I just laid out.  That is something to keep in mind when it comes to betting on the ponies.  Small wins.  And in many cases that is what this system will allow you to have.  Granted if you do pick the right horse you win both bets and are in for a pretty good payday, but if you only win the place bet you likely will have small overall win.  Cashing tickets is good for the human psyche.  I won’t downplay that portion of this system, it does lead to cashing many more tickets.

Ok, apart from the human aspect of this equation, let’s look at the way we should employ this racing system.  Much like any wager, we really need to be finding a horse that isn’t the favorite and using a win place bet to wager.  This is somewhat common knowledge, but the point is a good one to keep in mind.  Unless you are getting 3-1 or better on a horse it is really hard to make any money betting on it.  Depending on the track the favorite horse can be as low as even odds are worse.  This is no way to win at the track.  The fact is that if you find a way to win 40% of your bets you are doing especially well. At even money you are losing long term with this strategy.  And likely if you cash tickets in 25% of your bets you are doing pretty well as compared to most people.  So like all of horse racing, we want to look at the favorite of the betting public and see if we have any legitimate reasons to believe they won’t win the race (or even better won’t finish in the money).  If we can’t do that then you are much better off skipping the race.  If you can find a good reason that the public favorite is a false favorite then game on.  Go through the rest of the horses and select a horse that you are confident has a chance to win and place your bet.  At this point it truly is that simple.

When I first heard about horse racing systems back my first few times to the track I felt like I was listening to a whole other language.  Win, place, show, Trifecta, Exacta, Superfecta were bandied about like they were going out of style and I had no clue what they were talking about.  Well a few trips and that was ironed out, but then I realized I had just scratched the surface!  Then came words like exotics, trip handicapping, daily double and the like.  My head was spinning.  To be fair though, most things that people are passionate about there is a whole language unto itself.  It is part of what makes these activities so much fun.  The thing is, I kept hearing the same things out of long time veterans of the track.  They were always making comments about how a certain horse had a perfect trip, or a different horse had such a terrible trip it had no chance to win.  It was from here that my first foray into a trip handicapping horse racing system was born.

So, you are likely similar to me when reading this and wondering what the heck a “trip” is when it comes to horse racing.  At first I thought that it literally meant that a horse tripped and fell or at least stumbled while running and therefore was having a hard time ending up in the money.  But that wouldn’t explain a “perfect trip” that was talked about often.  So to be clear, when we are talking about a “trip” a horse makes during a race it literally means what route did it take during the race.  In other words, the “trip” is the exact path that the horse takes while running the race which has a determination on the outcome.  And once I realized this I began to see things.  A horse nearly falls down out of the gate and somehow rallies to finish 3rd.  Or perhaps a horse is given the inside rail at will and sees no competition to find a way to its “perfect trip” and therefore finished better in the race that would otherwise be expected.

So what are common things to look for when attempting to trip handicap.  First things I am looking at is whether they had a slow start that either wasn’t their fault or was their fault but likely won’t be a common occurrence.  Did the horse stumble out of the gate.  Did she nearly buck her rider off just prior to the start of the race.  Did another horse bump the horse and knock it off stride at some point during the race (this often happens at the start).  When coming around the home stretch did a horse want to make a serious move inside, but was shut off by a bevy of other horses.  These are all things that likely won’t happen in every race and therefore we should expect that horse to see a better “trip” the next race.  We can use this information to make a calculated guess that it will finish better than the last race.

So how do we put this into action?  First off we obviously have to be watching the race with our own two eyes to get this information.  You won’t get this information in your BRIS past performances (at best you will get a “bumped break” or similar comment but I wouldn’t count on too much).  This happens by either being at the track or finding a way to watch the race on the television.  TVG is a great way to get this information if you have cable or satellite TV.  Or perhaps your track has a daily or weekly race recap on your local station.  I know my local track has one on late at night on a local channel after each race day.  Once you have this information it helps to write down the name of the horse and a quick note as to what happened and why you like the horse.  Perhaps something like: tripped out of gate and fell to last, but managed to finish 3rd by a neck charging hard.  Or similar.  The next time this horse is in a race you will be waiting to see if it is a legit contender and luckily you likely will be getting better odds than you otherwise should.  The general public has almost no chance of actually having this information at their fingertips and won’t be able to put it into use.

I have found this trip handicapping horse racing system to be especially helpful when talking about young horses.  A young horse almost always wants to be in the lead.  They have a hard time passing horses late in general and are notorious for wanting the lead.  If you find a horse that had a bad start, yet still found a way to be passing horses late and finished respectably you likely have an underlay on your hands and over time this will proved to be profitable.  And with horse racing betting this is really all we are looking for!